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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 19, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: New reports from NY, PA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, NY; York County, PA; and Allegan and Muskegon Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Hot and humid with scattered showers. The early-week weather starts with the strong Bermuda High centered offshore. There are a number of fronts present, remnants of old ones in the South and East and 2 others in the North (one in place now, another arriving Tuesday). Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms are expected in most areas. Highs in the upper 80s to low 100s, lows well into the 60s and 70s.


Overview: Epidemic spread likely Southeast, possible many other areas. The fairly stagnant mid-summer pattern produces a situation similar to many previous forecasts. Most transport events track near-source or northeast. Conditions vary day-to-day and from event to event. This results in risks that vary between Low and Moderate for most growing areas that are impacted. The most favorable conditions will be in portions of the Southeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 19

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and far southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern SC, western NC, southwest VA, eastern NC, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Low Risk in southern ME, southeast NH, the eastern 1/2 of MA, RI, eastern CT, central and southeast PA, DE, eastern 1/2 of MD, southeast VA, the FL peninsula, eastern TN, western MI, northern IN, and southwest IN and nearby parts of KY and IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 20

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, and west-central SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL, central and northern GA, eastern TN, southeast KY, northwest and eastern SC, NC, all but northwest VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southern NY, central and eastern PA, central and northeast MO, southern IN, and nearby northwest KY. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central and western MI, far northern IN, southern New England, far southern VT and NH, Long Island, south-central and southeast NY, and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019