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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 14, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled South Monday; rain expands north Tuesday. A stalled front lies over the deep South. Showers in that region on Monday continue and strengthen on Tuesday. Showers occur in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic on Tuesday after a drier day Monday, aided by the approach of a new front from the Plains. Highs mostly 60s to 80s, lows 40s to 70s.


Overview: Epidemic spread possible. Conditions are such that epidemic spread may occur in parts of the deep South on Monday and over much of the South and nearby loctions to the north on Tuesday. Best chances are in portions of MS / AL / GA. Transport events move near the sources and/or to the north / northeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 14

Moderate Risk for southern MS, southern AL, and the western panhandle of FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle and southwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 15

Moderate Risk for the southern half of MS and AL, southwest GA, and the FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in eastern AR, southern KY, TN, the northern half of MS and AL, GA except the southwest, northern FL, SC, NC except the northeast, and far southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019