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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, August 14, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: New reports from MI and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Clinton and Van Buren Counties, MI; and Suffolk County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from OH; new reports from AL, PA, and VA. CDM has been confirmed in Huron County, OH; Limestone and Montgomery Counties, AL; Juniata County, PA; and Accomack County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Variable summer weather. A dissipating stationary front along the East Coast Thursday provides focus for showers, mainly in the Northeast and lower Southeast. Mainly dry weather west of the mountains on Thursday shifts to more unsettled Wednesday and Thursday as a front in southern Canada / central U.S. moves south and east. Much of the East Coast, save for parts of the Southeast, will be drier until later Thursday or Friday. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely across the northern tier and parts of the South. Transport events tend to track near-source and north to northeast during the midweek period. Conditions will vary from region to region and from day to day. The better chances of epidemic spread occur nearer the fronts in the North, and in the very moist regime in the South.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, August 14

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, central and eastern PA, central and northern NJ, central and eastern PA, VT, and western sections of CT, MA, and NH. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in coastal SC and NC, eastern MD, DE, Long Island, eastern CT, RI, central and eastern MA, and southern NH. Low Risk for northeast VT, most of NH, southeast VA / far northeast NC, southern WV, southwest VA, northeast TN, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 15

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, northern IN, and southwest MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in lower MI except the southwest, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, the western FL panhandle, southern AL, and central GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 16

HIGH Risk in northern IN, lower MI, southern ON, northern OH, western and central PA, and the western half of NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern OH, western and southern WV, the eastern half of KY, central and eastern TN, southwest VA, the NC mountians, AL, northern and western GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in SC, southeast NC, eastern PA, northwest NJ, and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018