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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, November 1, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 November: First report from LA. CDM has been confirmed in East Feliciana Parish, LA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


*** Forecast Notes - 1 November: Today's forecasts conclude the forecasting for the 2019 disease season. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Drier and much cooler. The warm, humid conditions of earlier this week give way to much colder and drier weather in the wake of the cold front. Scattered showers occur in central and southern FL while the tail end of the cold front lingers over the peninsula. Frost and freeze watches and warnings are prevalent for the mainland. Highs in the 50s and 60s mainland to 70s and 80s FL. Lows in the 30s and 40s in the interior and 50s to 70s on the peninsula.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Conditions are wholly unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition, with the exception of the events from central or southern FL. Some short-range epidemic spread is possible there. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 1

Moderate Risk in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 2

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 3

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

 

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 30, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 October: No new counties to report. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather. Now in the lower MS Valley, the early-week front slogs eastward over the next 2 days. Expect pervasive cloud cover with steady rain or showers at most locations. Lightest amounts will fall on the FL peninsula and the southern Atlantic coast. Markedly cooler and drier behind the front. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. The more favorable weather surrounding the mid-week frontal passage can engender some short-range epidemic spread. Risks are tempered by antecedent conditions and the availability of host, plus the much cooler temperatures behind the front Thursday afternoon / evening / night. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 30

Moderate Risk in south-central MS, central and southern AL, west-central and southern GA, the FL panhandle and far northern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, far southeast GA, southern and eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 31

Moderate Risk for southern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, the western panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, central and eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

 

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 28, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 October: No new counties to report. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Drier Monday, more unsettled Tuesday.  The leftover front astride northern FL and a cold front approaching from the west combine to produce showers in the lower Southeast on Monday and more widespread rain and showers region-wide on Tuesday. Skies are sunny to partly cloudy most areas today and will be partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday. Warm, with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. There is a respite from the previously favorable conditions on Monday for most locations. Sky conditions are unfavorable and the rain forecast for the mainland areas arrives at night. Greater cloudiness and increased chances of rain and forecast amounts are reflected in more host areas at risk for Tuesday's transport events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 28

Moderate Risk in central and northern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, the FL panhandle, and southern sections of AL and GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 29

Moderate Risk for FL, southern AL, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, central and southern MS, central AL and GA, central and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

 

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 25, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 October: No new counties to report. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather returns.  A slow-moving and evolving combination of frontal systems impacts the South this weekend. Clouds and rain in the lower MS Valley gradually translate east from Friday through Sunday. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the far South. The increase in favorable conditions will produce elevated risks during the next 3 days, most pronounced near the sources in MS, AL, GA, and FL.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 25

HIGH Risk for southeast LA, the southern half of MS and AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk in the FL peninsula and southeast GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern GA and western SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 26

HIGH Risk for FL, southwest GA, central and southern AL, and southern MS. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast MS, northern AL, northern and eastern GA, and central and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 27

HIGH Risk for the FL peninsula and southeast GA. Moderate Risk to the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest and south-central GA, and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in east-central AL, north-central GA, north-central and northeast SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, southeast MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 23, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 October: No new counties to report. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

A drier period. Fair weather dominates as high pressure covers the southern and eastern U.S.. The next front produces rain in the south-central U.S. on Thursday, and there will be some leftover showers in FL and near the immediate Gulf Coast. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows from the 40s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Some epidemic spread is possible in FL and near the Gulf Coast on Thursday, as conditions grow more favorable in those regions. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 23

Moderate Risk in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 24

Moderate Risk to the FL peninsula. Low Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, far southern AL, southern MS, and southeast LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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