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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 19, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: New reports from NY, PA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, NY; York County, PA; and Allegan and Muskegon Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Hot and humid with scattered showers. The early-week weather starts with the strong Bermuda High centered offshore. There are a number of fronts present, remnants of old ones in the South and East and 2 others in the North (one in place now, another arriving Tuesday). Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms are expected in most areas. Highs in the upper 80s to low 100s, lows well into the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Southeast, possible many other areas. The fairly stagnant mid-summer pattern produces a situation similar to many previous forecasts. Most transport events track near-source or northeast. Conditions vary day-to-day and from event to event. This results in risks that vary between Low and Moderate for most growing areas that are impacted. The most favorable conditions will be in portions of the Southeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 19

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and far southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern SC, western NC, southwest VA, eastern NC, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Low Risk in southern ME, southeast NH, the eastern 1/2 of MA, RI, eastern CT, central and southeast PA, DE, eastern 1/2 of MD, southeast VA, the FL peninsula, eastern TN, western MI, northern IN, and southwest IN and nearby parts of KY and IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 20

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, and west-central SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL, central and northern GA, eastern TN, southeast KY, northwest and eastern SC, NC, all but northwest VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southern NY, central and eastern PA, central and northeast MO, southern IN, and nearby northwest KY. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central and western MI, far northern IN, southern New England, far southern VT and NH, Long Island, south-central and southeast NY, and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 16, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: New reports from NY, PA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, NY; York County, PA; and Allegan and Muskegon Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: First reports from NY, MO, and DE; new reports from MD and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Orange County, NY; Morgan County, MO; Sussex County, DE; Centre County, PA; and Prince George's County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Unsettled weather most regions. There is a stationary front persisting along the East Coast. Another frontal system in the central U.S. expands into the Great Lakes and Northeast with time. Weakish high pressure lies in between through the weekend. The wetter regions are toward the lower Southeast / south Atlantic coast and from the central U.S. across the northern areas. It will be drier from the south-central U.S. into the mid-South and portions of the mid-Atlantic. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely many areas. Transport events move in multiple directions over the next 3 days, though most tend to track near the source and/or to the east or northeast. Conditions during the events change day to day. For any particular source during this period of favorable weather, the conditions will be slightly favorable or more on succesive days, increasing the overall threat of disease development. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 16

HIGH Risk for the eastern FL panhandle, southeast GA, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MO, western IL, northeast NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, NJ, central and easetern PA and NY. Low Risk in western MI, southwest to east-central GA, central SC, south-central NC and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 17

HIGH Risk for central and northeast MO, the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, central and northeast SC, eastern NC, the NC mountains, central and eastern PA, nrothern NJ, central and eastern NY, southern VT, northern IN, and western and central MI. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, southeast IA, western IL, central and eastern MD, DE, southern and central NJ, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 18

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern GA, southern AL, southern SC, southwest MI, and far northern IN. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL and GA, SC except the south, western and southeast NC, central and northeast PA, south-central and eastern NY, southern VT and NH, MA, CT, RI, and central Nd northeast MO. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, eastern TN, far southeast KY, northeast NC, eastern VA, the eastern 1/2 of MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, central and eastern MI, far southern ON, and western IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 14, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: First reports from NY, MO, and DE; new reports from MD and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Orange County, NY; Morgan County, MO; Sussex County, DE; Centre County, PA; and Prince George's County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Active weather. A complex frontal system over the eastern U.S. remains essentially in place. Clouds and showers / rain will be the norm. High pressure centered to the west keeps portions of the east-central U. S. dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from AL up the East Coast. The main front lies from the mid-Atlantic southwestward through the deep South. Transport events from the southeastern sources move northeast. Other events move near-source and south (Wednesday) or near-source and some curving west / north (Thursday). Mixed to favorable conditions dominate most events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 14

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, eastern SC, southeast NC, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, northeast PA, far southern MD, southeast VA, NC except the southeast, northeast TN, central and western SC, southwest MI, northern IN, northeast IL, and southeast MI. Low Risk on the FL peninsula and in central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 15

HIGH Risk for the western FL panhandle, southern GA, eastern SC, the eastern half of NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, central and eastern PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southeast NY, western MA, CT, Long Island, the western half of NC, central and western SC, southern AL, and the western FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central AL, northern and central IN, and southwest MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 12, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Active weather North; mostly dry with some showers South. Two frontal systems ... one in the central U.S. and one in southeast Canada ... combine to usher in a period of increasingly wet weather. Rain and showers fall in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley today and will expand into the Northeast on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 70s/50s far North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the MI source and in the Northeast. Another day of unfavorable conditions for most transport events on Monday with the notable exception of the MI event. Conditions deteriorate on Tuesday ahead of the approaching fronts with the most favorable conditions in the Northeast and slightly favorable to mixed conditions southwestward through the mid-Atlantic and in parts of the Southeast. The timing is such that the MI event will also have favorable conditions on Tuesday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 12

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southwest GA, southwest MI, and northern IN. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL, most of central and northern GA, and the NC mountains. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in east-central IN, northwest OH, parts of south-central and southern MI, southern SC, far southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 13

HIGH Risk for southwest MI, northern IN, northeast MD, northern DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern TN, southeast KY, southern WV, southwest and far southwest VA, western NC, the FL panhandle, and southern AL and GA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central IN, southern DE and MD, southern and eastern VA, north-central and northeast NC, and central AL and GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, August 10, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Showers Southeast and North-central; drier Northeast and South-central. A front stalled over the Carolinas / TN Valley bisects the central and eastern U.S.. High pressure and dry weather largely govern the North today. Another front enters the North on Sunday accompanied by scattered showers. To the south, scattered showers occur east of the MS River while the south-central U.S. is dry. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the South. Transport events move near-source and east on Saturday, near-source and curving north in most cases on Sunday. Conditions vary widely depending on cloud cover and rainfall. The more favorable conditions will be in the Southeast / NC. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, August 10

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, western NC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern GA. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in eastern TN, far eastern GA, SC, central and northeast NC, central and eastern MA, RI, and far eastern CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, August 11

HIGH Risk for  southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central GA, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central AL, far eastern GA, central and western SC, the NC mountains, and western and central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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