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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 14, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled South Monday; rain expands north Tuesday. A stalled front lies over the deep South. Showers in that region on Monday continue and strengthen on Tuesday. Showers occur in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic on Tuesday after a drier day Monday, aided by the approach of a new front from the Plains. Highs mostly 60s to 80s, lows 40s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. Conditions are such that epidemic spread may occur in parts of the deep South on Monday and over much of the South and nearby loctions to the north on Tuesday. Best chances are in portions of MS / AL / GA. Transport events move near the sources and/or to the north / northeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 14

Moderate Risk for southern MS, southern AL, and the western panhandle of FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle and southwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 15

Moderate Risk for the southern half of MS and AL, southwest GA, and the FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in eastern AR, southern KY, TN, the northern half of MS and AL, GA except the southwest, northern FL, SC, NC except the northeast, and far southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 11, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled central U.S. Friday and mid-Atlantic / South Sunday. Mostly dry Saturday. A strong Fall cold front moves from the central U.S. to the eastern U.S. and then stalls over the lower mid-Atlantic / Southeast. Clouds and rain in the central U.S. on Friday will move east with the front over the weekend. The greatest rain should fall on Friday while the front impacts Central areas. Only a few showers are expected Saturday before more unsettled weather sets up over the mid-Atlantic / South. There is a marked change in temperatures on either side of the front. Highs in the 60s to 80s (40s and 50s North) ahead of the front, 40s to 60s behind (70s and 80s South). Lows in the 40s to 60s near and ahead of the front, 30s and 40s behind.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Cool to cold temperatures ... the lack of recent rainfall in the southern areas (except for parts of FL) ... and host availability in general ... combine to temper risks the next several days. Some epidemic spread is possible near some of the known sources, mainly on Friday west of the Appalachians. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 11

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in south-central FL, MS except the southeast, eastern AR, western and west-central TN, western and northern KY, southeast IL, southern IN, southwest OH, Long Island, southern CT, RI, southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 12

Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL, the NC mountains, northeast TN, southwest VA, and southeast WV. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 13

Low risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern AL, southwest GA, southwest MS, the NC mountains, southeast VA, and southern MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 9, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Dry most regions. A low pressure area off the East Coast generates rain / showers in the Northeast. A cold front entering the Plains from the Rockies will produce increasingly unsettled weather in the central U.S.. Otherwise, fair weather prevails save for a few showers in FL and near the Gulf Coast. Warm, with highs mostly 70s and 80s, low mostly 50s and 60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Epidemic spread is possible in some isolated areas, the larger of which are near the mid-Atlantic / Northeast coast and on the FL peninsula. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 9

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the far western panhandle, southwest AL, north-central MO, eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, far southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, southern and southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 10

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southwest MS, far northeast LA, central MO, southwest WI, NJ, Long Island, far southeast NY, CT, RI, and southern and southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 7, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled East; mostly dry Central. A cold front lies along the Appalachians southwestward into LA. Showers occur ahead of the front as it moves east. Scattered showers will fall behind the front as well, on Tuesday. High pressure and dry weather now over the Central U.S. fill in behind the front. Highs mostly 60s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s with a few 70s far South.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The prior and current conditions in FL create mixed conditions for those transport events early this week. Various transport events, mainly those coming out of the sources just ahead of and along the cold front,  give rise to generally short-range epidemic spread. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 7

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, central and southern AL, eastern and southeast LA, all but southeast MS, eastern AR, KY, TN except the south-central, the NC mountains, far southwest VA, central MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, southern CT, RI, southeast MA, and near the southeast OH and southeast WV sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 8

Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern AL, southeast MS, southeast LA, western NC, northeast TN, eastern KY, southern and eastern WV, southwest / western / northern VA, western and northern MD, northern DE, central and eastern PA, and southwest NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 4, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Harrison County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry Friday; a front advances into the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday. Strong Canadian high pressure is pushing the midweek front into the South. That front will trigger isolated to scattered showers as it dissipates. The next front is coming out of the northern Rockies. It plows into the central U.S. with clouds, rain and showers on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are cooling dramatically from north to south as time progresses. Highs in the 50s to 60s North to 80s and 90s South. Lows in the 30s to 50s North to 60s and 70s South.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Friday's transport events are almost completely benign. There will be an increase in hosts at risk on Saturday and especially Sunday (as the front presses east). However, nearly all of those risks reside in the lower side of the Low Risk category, as spore production should be diminished due to the prolonged hot and dry weather. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 4

Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL, southern AL, the western FL panhandle, and southwest MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 5

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low risk for cucurbits in the rest of FL, southwest GA, central and southern AL and MS, the NC mountains, central and northeast MO, southwest WI, and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 6

Moderate Risk for southern and central FL. Low risk for cucurbits in northern FL and the panhandle, southern SC, the southern half of GA, AL, MS, northeast AR, TN, the NC mountains, KY, southern IN, OH, far southern ON, near the WV sourve, and southeast PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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