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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 3, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from IN; new reports from NJ, VA, and MI. CDM had been confirmed in Lagrange County, IN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Suffolk County, VA; and Arenac and Saginaw Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First reports from TN and MI; new reports from PA and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Berrien County, MI; Lancaster County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Active weather Friday, diminishing some on Saturday. An upper-level pattern that has been very supportive of eastern U.S. rainfall continues on Friday but will begin to relax thereafter. The East Coast states / South are quite wet on Friday; scattered showers are expected on Saturday. Weather will be drier west of the mountains though some showers are possible. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and East. Transport events tend to track mostly east to northeast Friday and Saturday. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread over a very large area on Friday. Favorability lessens on Saturday yet the large majority of events will still have mixed to favorable conditions.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 3

HIGH Risk for central and southeast AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and southeast NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast LA, southeast MS, southwest AL, and eastern TN. Low Risk for central NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southwest ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 4

HIGH Risk in southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, far eastern PA, northern and central NJ, far eastern NC, southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western panhandle of FL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern panhandle, central and southeast AL, GA, eastern TN, SC, all but far eastern NC, VA, MD except the far west, DE, southern NJ, and central and eastern PA. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern VT and NH, and far southeast ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 31, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First reports from TN and MI; new reports from PA and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Berrien County, MI; Lancaster County, PA; and Hunterdon County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First reports from KY; new report from AL. CDM had been confirmed in Pulaski and Breathitt Counties, KY; and Russell County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States

Very wet weather. A warm front over the mid-Atlantic is connected to a low pressure area in the Ohio Valley. An attendant quasi-stationary cold front extends southwestward into TX/LA. The fronts change position somewhat but do not move much until later this week. The subtropical floodgates are open and moisture abounds. Showers and/or storms are likely for nearly all areas of the eastern U.S. through midweek. Some drying may occur in the the Ohio Valley by Thursday. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: HIGH Risk for cucurbits throughout the eastern United States. We are in a prolonged period of very favorable weather for epidemic spread. Transport events move north/NW Tuesday, generally north/NE Wednesday and Thursday. Susceptible plants in larege regions of the eastern U.S. are going to expericence multiple rounds of survivable spore transport and effective deposition.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 31

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern and eastern AL, all but southeast GA, SC, NC, eastern TN, eastern KY, the Virginias, MD, DE, most of PA, western NY, southern and eastern OH, southwest MI, northwest IN, far northeast IL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in NJ, far eastern PA, central NY. Low Risk for southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, August 1

HIGH Risk in southeast AL, the FL panhandle, most of GA, the Carolinas, northeast TN, eastern KY, VA, central and southern WV, MD, DE, central and western NJ, central and western PA, central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NJ, Long Island, eastern NY, and western CT and MA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, southern MI, northern IN, and northwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, August 2

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, GA, SC, eastern TN and KY, all but far eastern sections of NC / VA / MD, WV, central and eastern PA, and central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the far eastern eastern sections of NC / VA / MD, DE, NJ, eastern NY, Long Island, and western CT and MA. Low Risk to cucurbits in VT, NH, central and eastern MA, eastern CT, RI, southern QE, and southern lower MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 29, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 July: First reports from KY; new report from AL. CDM had been confirmed in Pulaski and Breathitt Counties, KY; and Russell County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 July: New reports from PA, NJ, and NC. CDM had been confirmed in Lehigh County, PA; Cumberland County, NJ; and Haywood County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather for most of this week. A stationary front is off the northern mid-Atlantic coast and extends southwestward through the Carolinas and deep South. As the upper-level and surface weather features evolve, scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue in the Southeast, expand back into the mid-Atlantic states, and then move over the bulk of the eastern U.S.. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows mostly in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Transport events track mostly near the sources on Sunday, and near-source to north and northwest on Monday. There will be a variety of conditions during each day's transport events, with favorability for epidemic spread increasing with time.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 29

HIGH Risk for southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, SC except the northwest, central and eastern NC, and far southeast VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest SC, western NC, southwest and central VA. Low Risk for far eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 30

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, GA, the FL border counties, northeast TN, the Carolinas, VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern NJ, and west-central and southern PA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern half of KY, east-central and northern PA, western NY, and nearby southern ON. Low Risk to cucurbits in central NY, northeast PA, far western PA, central and western WV, southern OH, and most of southern and central IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 27, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 July: New reports from PA, NJ, and NC. CDM had been confirmed in Lehigh County, PA; Cumberland County, NJ; and Haywood County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 July: New reports from NC and VA. CDM had been confirmed in Henderson County, NC and Emporia County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Scattered summertime showers. A cold front now just west of the Appalachians will cross the divide and merge with the existing stationary front on the east side. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and a chance of scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Shower activity will be increasing late this weekend into next week as yet another wet pattern for the East becomes established.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast and Northeast. Conditions will be slightly favorable to mixed for most transport events, though there are a few in which more clouds will lie overhead and more rain is anticipated. Transport events trek generally near-source and northeast to east.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 27

HIGH Risk for southern GA, central and eastern SC, eastern NC, northeast PA, east-central NY, northeast MA, and southern VT. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern AL, the FL panhandle, eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, MA except the northwest, and southern NH. Low Risk for western SC, far northeast TN, western and central NC, southern and eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 28

HIGH Risk for eastern NC and northeast SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, central SC, east-central NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast GA, western SC, western NC, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 24, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 July: New reports from NC and VA. CDM had been confirmed in Henderson County, NC and Emporia County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New report from NC. CDM had been confirmed in Chatham County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Rainy through the East Coast states. A stalled front in the East will be joined by a cold front moving in from the central U.S.. Strong moisture feed from the south ensures more clouds and rain through mid-week. Some drying may occur from the west on Thursday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the East. Transport events move near-source and ... north / NW (Tuesday), north / NE (Wednesday), and northeast (Thursday). Conditions are favorable during a very large number of these events.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 24

HIGH Risk for the eastern FL panhandle, southeast AL, western and southern GA, northeast TN, the Carolinas, VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and south-central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL and the western panhandle. Low Risk for mainland NY except the south-central, and nearby areas of southern ON and southern QE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 25

HIGH Risk for the eastern panhandle of FL, GA except the northwest and southeast, NC, SC, VA except the southwest, DE, central and eastern MD, western NJ, central and eastern PA, and eastern NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western panhandle and southeast AL. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, eastern NJ, far southeast NY / western Long Island, far western CT and MA, VT, northern NH, and southern Quebec. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, July 26

HIGH Risk for  the eastern panhandle, most of central and southern GA, central and eastern sections of SC and NC, and southeast VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and central and western CT. Low Risk for the western FL panhandle, southeast AL, northeast GA, western SC, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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