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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 30, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Wetter North and South; drier with a few showers in between. Slow-moving / stalled fronts near the Gulf Coast and over the northern U.S. provide the foci for rainfall late this weekend into early next week. As the southern front washes out, moisture creeps northward and creates a chance of showers in the mid-South / Ohio Valley. Warm and warming temperatures; highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the Gulf Coast. Transport events move east to northeast Sunday, and a variety of directions on Monday. Conditions are most favorable in the South, especially near the Gulf Coast. Minimal risks for much of the East Coast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 30

HIGH Risk for southeast MS, ,southern AL, southern GA, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern LA, far southern AR, east-central AL, central and northern GA, far western SC, and western NC. Low Risk for eastern IA, southern WI, northern IL, central and southern MI, far northern IN and OH, southern ON, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 1

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast and southeast LA, southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, far southern SC, southwest NC, eastern TN, east-central KY, and southwest OH. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, central and northern AL, northeast MS, western and central TN and KY, IN, northern IL, eastern IA, southern WI, central and southern MI, OH except the southwest, southern ON, western PA, NY except the north and southeast, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 28, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Drier weather; chance of showers Southeast and North. One front sags into the Southeast while another swings through the northern and central areas. The southern front is the more vigorous. Only lighter showers are expected with the northern system. Cooler and drier air lies in between the fronts and even more strongly behind the second front. There will be a very wide range of temperatures; highs run from the 40s/50s to the 80s, and lows fall from the 30s to the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the South. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be mixed to favorable in the southern areas each day.  Slightly favorable conditions occur across the northern tier of states / provinces. Transport events tend to track near-source and east to northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 28

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, and far southeast MS. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central AL, central GA, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Low Risk for east-central GA, central SC, central and northeast NC, eastern IA, northern IL, southern WI, lower MI, southern ON, NY, southern VT and NH, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 29

HIGH Risk for far southeast LA, southeast MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern and east-central GA, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, central and southern MS except the southeast , central AL, west-central into northeast AL, western SC, and western and southern NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern sections of OH, IN, and IL; central and southern lower MI, southern WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 26, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

An unsettled period. Showers in the Northeast will diminish on Thursday as high pressure pushes the northern end of a cold front off the coast. The southern end of the front hangs up. The midweek will have rain and showers both days in the mid-Atlantic and South. Expect a wide range of temperatures, with highs in the 60s to 90s, and lows from the 40s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern and central regions. Transport events track east to northeast during midweek. While the weather will be favorable in nearly all areas, declining disease activity will temper the risk across the northern sections.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 26

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, eastern MS, AL, GA but the southeast, central and eastern TN, the Carolinas, southeast WV, southern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern KY, central WV, and northern VA. Low Risk for southeast GA, northern WV, eastern OH, southern ON, PA, NY, central and northern NJ, and New England except ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 27

HIGH Risk for the western FL panhandle, AL, eastern MS, northern GA, TN, KY, NC, SC, central and southern WV, VA, central and southern MD. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, central and southern GA, and eastern LA / southern MS. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern IA, southern WI, central and northern lower MI, southeast OH, northern WV and MD, DE, PA, NY, NJ, and New England except ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 23, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Active weather. The main weather features are high pressure moving across southern Canada and 2 frontal systems that are wavering around / moving into eastern North America. The wettest weather occurs in an arc from the lower MS Valley northeastward into the mid-Atlantic. The driest will be in parts of the Southeast. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the central Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. A late season period of active weather is producing favorable conditions for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne spores in many areas. Transport events trend more toward the north and northeast as days pass and the weather features change orientation.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 23

HIGH Risk for western AL, MS, northeast LA, the western 1/2 of TN, KY, far southern OH, northern and central WV, far southern PA, southern NJ, MD, and DE. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast WV, southwest VA, eastern 1/2 of TN, far western NC, northwest and southwest GA, eastern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for central GA, western SC, western NC, central and eastern VA, central PA, and south-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 24

HIGH Risk for NJ, DE, MD, southern PA, WV, northern / central / southwest VA, southern OH, southern IN, KY, far southern OH, TN, far western NC, northern GA, AL, the FL panhandle, MS, and northeast LA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southwest VA, and central and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern SC, NC except the far west, southern VA, Long Island, CT, western MA, central and southern NY, northern PA, southern ON, central and northern OH, lower MI, central and northern IN, southern WI, eastern and northern IL, and eastenr IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 25

HIGH Risk for western and northern AL, MS, northeast LA, TN, KY, southern IN and OH, southwest VA, WV, southern PA, MD, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, western and central GA, western SC and NC, central VA, and southern MD. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, New England except ME, central and northern NJ, NY, central and northern PA, southern ON, central and northern OH and IN, lower MI, northern and eastern IL, southern WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Changeable weather. A strong Low over southern ON anchors a cold front that extends into the southern Plains. Active weather follows the front as the northern end surges east, the southern end holds steady, and the middle section eventually repositions over the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley. Some areas will be wet both days (southern Ohio Valley), some dry (interior Southeast), but most will have one day of showers and another day of fair weather. Highs from the 70s to 90s dropping to the 60s to 80s. Lows in the 60s and 70s, dropping to the 40s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower/mid MS and Ohio Valleys. Transport events move to the east and northeast on Friday; they exhibit a variety of behaviors on Saturday. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread will be found in an arc leading from the central Gulf Coast north and east toward the central Appalachians.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 21

HIGH Risk for central and eastern AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TN, KY, southern IN, southern OH, WV, southwest VA, western MD, and southwest PA. Low Risk for northeast LA, northeast MS / northwest AL, northern SC, the western 1/2 of NC, western and northern VA, central MD, lower MI, northern IN and OH, southern ON, PA except the southwest, central and northern NJ, NY, Long Island, southern New England, VT, and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 22

HIGH Risk for northeast LA, eastern AR, northwest MS, western and north-central TN, far southeast MO, far southern IL/IN/OH, KY, extreme southwest VA, central and western WV. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, MS except the northwest, western and central AL, the western FL panhandle, south-central and eastern TN, western and central NC, and western and central VA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast NC, northern and eastern VA, DE, MD, northern WV, southern PA, and south-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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