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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 21, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17,19 June: Updates from NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 June: First reports from SC. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Charleston County, SC and on cucumber in a home garden in Florence County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Chance of showers (mainly Southeast); mostly dry otherwise. A dissipating front will be the focus for scattered showers Friday from the south Atlantic coast through the central Gulf coast and FL. The Bermuda High will become increasingly prominent after the front washes out. Scattered showers are possible from LA / AR eastward Saturday and Sunday, with the best chances toward the Southeast. Highs from the 80s eastern sections to 100s TX / OK, lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast. Friday ... transport events move near the FL sources and go southwest from the other sources. Conditions are favorable in parts of FL. Saturday ... events track northwest and north from most sources and there is potential for long-range transport and deposition. Conditions will be most favorable in the mainland Southeast. Cucurbits from the lower mid-Atlantic through the Southeast could be impacted. Sunday ... mixed conditions prevail for the various transport events, most of which curve to the north or perhaps northeast. The areas of potential impact are similar, though conditions are not expected to be quite as favorable as for Saturday's transport events.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 21

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central FL and parts of northern FL. Low Risk for southern FL, northern FL and the FL panhandle, southern SC, southern GA, and parts of southern AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits near and west of the sources in southern GA and eastern SC. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for eastern AL and western GA, northern SC, all of NC except the far southwest and near the coast, extreme northeast TN, and all of southside VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 23

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, central and western GA, northeast AL, most of SC, and most of western NC. Low Risk for eastern GA and the Savannah River Valley, central and eastern NC, and most of the southern 1/2 of VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 19, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17,19 June: Updates from NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 June: First reports from SC. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Charleston County, SC and on cucumber in a home garden in Florence County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled with a chance of showers most areas. A front is sagging into the mid-South and Southeast; it will turn stationary near the Gulf Coast with time. Showers are possible in a lot of areas, but will generally be focused near the front, with drier weather in the south-central U.S.. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, warmer toward TX / OK.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Transport events originating north of the front track to the southwest, which includes those from NC and SC each day and from southern GA Thursday. Others move near the sources or to the northeast. The greatest favorability will be found near and just south of the front, i.e. the mainland Southeast on Wednesday and the lower Southeast on Thursday. Hot and dry in southern TX as these events move northwest.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 19

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southern GA, central and eastern SC and part of southeast NC. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, central GA into west-central SC. Low Risk for parts of eastern NC, near and southwest of the sources located there. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 20

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Moderate Risk for southern FL and southeast GA. Low Risk for southern SC, central GA, and east-central AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 17, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: Update from NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 June: First reports from SC. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Charleston County, SC and on cucumber in a home garden in Florence County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather for the next several days. A frontal system stretching from the mid-Atlantic into the central Plains will sag into the South early this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur each day along and ahead of the front, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Only a few of the southernmost areas will remain dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from GA to southeast VA. Transport events are moving generally northeast during the next two days. Conditions are and will be favorable from the mainland Southeast into the lower mid-Atlantic region. Growing areas in the upper mid-Atlantic and perhaps far southern New England may also be impacted. Hot and dry in southern TX.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 17

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southern and eastern GA through most of the Carolinas into southeast VA. Moderate Risk from central and northern FL into extreme southeast GA, and for eastern VA, central and eastern MD, and most of DE. Low Risk beyond, in northeast MD, northern DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, and extreme southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and eastern GA through the central and eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for northern FL, eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 14, 2013
 

 *** Epidemic Update - 12 June: First reports from SC. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Charleston County, SC and on cucumber in a home garden in Florence County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 June: New report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a research plot in Johnston County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Drier most areas; showers along old front. High pressure over the Great Lakes is driving the midweek cold front farther south. The front will extend from FL to the north-central Gulf and northwest into the Plains by this evening. Drier and cooler weather will dominate in most locales. There will be a chance of showers along the old front and for parts of TX and OK. Shower chances will increase Sunday night from OK through TN as another front draws near the southern U.S.. High in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s (few 50s eastern areas tonight), warmer temperatures OK and TX.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible lower Southeast. Transport events from FL move mostly near the source regions each day. Events out of the mainland sources in GA and the Carolinas track south and southwest today, generally north to northeast Saturday and Sunday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected in the lower Southeast each day with some day-to-day variation. Events originating from the mainland sources will find unfavorable conditions dominant. The TX events move northwest each day. Conditions on Friday are favorable enough to generate increased risk for the Rio Grande Valley.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 14

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in north-central and northern FL. Low Risk for southern GA, northern FL and the eastern panhandle, southern FL, and the Rio Grande Valley. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 15

Low to Moderate Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula and part of the panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 16

Low Risk to cucurbits along the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 12, 2013
 

 *** Epidemic Update - 12 June: First reports from SC. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Charleston County, SC and on cucumber in a home garden in Florence County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 June: New report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a research plot in Johnston County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Mostly dry Wednesday; chance of showers most areas Thursday. High pressure extends over the South from the western Atlantic. Scattered showers are expected in parts of FL, TX, and perhaps the southern Appalachians today. Shower coverage will expand to more areas on Thursday as a cold front pushes into the South from the north. Highs well into the 80s and 90s (few 100s western areas), lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the East Coast Thursday. Transport events on Thursday track to the ENE to NE from the eastern U.S. sources. Conditions will be mixed to favorable for epidemic spread, with the best chance in eastern sections of the mid-Atlantic states. Events on Wednesday (today) are much more benign. Mixed conditions are forecast in parts of FL and southern TX, and even less favorability near the other known sources.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 12

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Low Risk near the other sources, generally due to unfavorable sky conditions for the transport events but with a chance of evening showers near the sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast NC through eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low to Moderate Risk for the rest of the Atlantic Seaboard ... including the FL peninsula, southern GA, eastern SC into southeast NC, plus the rest of NJ, Long Island, and far southern New England. Low to Moderate Risk also for the lower Rio Grande Valley. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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