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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 28, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Brooks County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Very wet weather this week. SubTropical Storm Alberto is moving onto the FL panhandle today and will track northward thru AL and into the Ohio Valley. The large and unusual influx of tropical moisture that has impacted the Southeast recently will continue unabated this week. Expect widespread clouds, rain, and showers / storms. Heavy rainfall will occur near the track of Alberto and in the Carolinas Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. Conditions are very favorable for epidemic spread early this week and are expected to persist for many days. Epidemic spread is possible well north of the known sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 28

The GA event moves west, the FL events move north. HIGH Risk in southwest GA, the eastern panhandle, and far southeast AL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL and southeast GA. Low Risk in southern AL, the western FL panhandle, western SC, central and northern GA and nearby counties of TN and NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 29

Transport events track generally north. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and GA except the far north. Low Risk in far northern GA, eastern TN, southwest NC, and SC except the north-central and northeast sections. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 25, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Brooks County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Active weather. Scattered showers and storms will occur Friday and Saturday. Even more showers and storms will overspread the region in earnest late Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure area (possibly tropical) moves into the Gulf of Mexico from the south. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s. Unsettled weather is expected through much of next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely, especially in the lower Southeast. Favorable conditions are expected during all transport events. With the discovery of the GA source, the potential for epidemic spread expands into the mainland Southeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 25

Transport events track mostly to the north. HIGH Risk in most of central and northern FL, and southern GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central GA and the FL eastern panhandle. Low Risk in far eastern GA and western SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 26

Transport events from FL move WNW while the GA event curves northeast. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL and southern GA. Moderate Risk for east-central GA. Low Risk in west-central and northern SC, the FL panhandle, far southern AL and MS, and extreme southeast LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 27

Transport events track generally northwest. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, and southwest GA. Low Risk in the western panhandle and central and southern AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 23, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

More unsettled weather. The general pattern is similar to recent days, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, plentiful moisture, and scattered to numerous showers or storms. Rainfall will be enhanced by a slow-moving front sinking into the mainland Southeast from the north. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL. The threat of epidemic spread stays closer to the known sources in central FL during midweek. Mixed conditions are expected Wednesday; favorable conditions return Thursday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 23

Transport events drift slowly northwest. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in west-central FL and western sections of northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 24

Transport events track slowly west. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Active weather continues. A muggy, summer-like air mass lies over the region, reinforced by a Bermuda High offshore. Stationary fronts are to the north and west. Scattered to numerous showers and/or storms will occur in nearly all locations, with skies otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Conditions remain quite favorable for epidemic spread. Transport will be more toward the Gulf Coast early this week.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 21

Transport events move northwest. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL. Moderate Risk for coastal northern FL and the eastern panhandle. Low Risk in northern FL, southwest GA, southeast AL, and the western panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 22

Transport events move northwest. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL. Moderate Risk for the FL panhandle and far southern AL. Low Risk in western northern FL, southwest GA, and southeast AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 18, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Highly unsettled weather. A tropical-style weather regine remains in place through the weekend. High pressure is centered off the coast with a stationary front still situated to the north and west. Expect variably to mostly cloudy skies. Shower or storms may occur at any time in most areas, will be more prevalent during the midday to mid-evening hours, and the rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread. Transport events move at a slow to moderate pace. A large degree of washout is expected near the sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 18

Transport events track NNE. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL. Low Risk in southeast GA and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 19

Transport events move north. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL. Low Risk in the FL eastern panhandle and southern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 20

Transport events track more NNW. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and extreme southern GA. Low Risk in most of southern GA, southeast AL, and the FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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