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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 19, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 September: New report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in York County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

A drier period overall; scattered showers North and Gulf Coast. A couple of fronts are in the picture. One lies near the Gulf Coast, the other in the north-central / North. High pressure is in place otherwise. Largely dry weather prevails. Showers in the Great Lakes Wednesday expand toward the Northeast Thursday; daily showers fall near the Gulf Coast. A few showers are possible near the Appalachians. Warm with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas but less likely than recently. A relaxation of the recent very wet weather yields at least two days of more benign conditions for epidemic spread. Low levels of risk are present for sections of the North, Gulf Coast, and the Appalachians on one day or another.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 19

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern GA, the FL panhandle, and most of southern AL. Low Risk near the LA source, far southern MS and nearby LA and AL, most of the southern and central Appalachians northwestward across northern WV / southwest PA into eastern and central OH, lower MI, far northern IN, northeast IL, southern 1/2 of WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 20

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL / southwest GA, and the FL eastern panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern AL, the western panhandle, southern GA, western MA, NH, VT, far southern QE, NY except the southeast , northern PA, southern ON, northern OH and IN, lower MI, southern WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 16, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 September: New report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in York County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 September: First reports from MS and LA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS; and Tensas County, LA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence dominates the weather scene. Decaying Hurricane Florence, who has been crawling westward across northern SC, is moving a little faster today. She will reach the Appalachian Mountains, turn to the right, and accelerate northeast, exiting the Northeast coast on Tuesday. Heavy to tremendous rains will fall in NC to western VA today with plentiful rainfall in nearby areas. Lesser but still copious amouts of rain will occur in the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Monday and Tuesday as Florence moves through these regions. A mixture of dry weather and scattered showers lingers along the East Coast on Tuesday. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in most of eastern North America. Conditions for survivable transport and depostion will be favorable in most of the transport events late this weekend into early this week. Almost all events will be heavily influenced by Hurricane Florence in terms of direction or sky conditions and rainfall.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 16

HIGH Risk in SC, NC, VA, southern and western MD, WV, eastern KY, eastern TN, and far northeast GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern and central GA, northeast AL, central TN, central KY, southeast IN, and central and southern OH. Low Risk for southern PA, southern NJ, DE, and northeast MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 17

HIGH Risk in central and southern VT and NH, southern New England, NY except the far north, all of the Mid-Atlantic region, OH except the northwest, eastern KY, central and eastern SC, and southeast GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest NC, eastern and north-central TN, central KY, eastern IN, northwest OH, southeast MI, southern ON, far northern NY, northern VT and NH. Low Risk to cucurbits in western SC, and northeast / central / southwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 18

HIGH Risk in far southeast GA, the coastal plains of SC, eastern and central NC, MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southwest ME. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south-central NY, central PA, WV, southwest VA, central and western NC except the far southwest, central SC, and southeast GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, far southeast AL, southwest to northeast GA, western SC, far southwest NC, southern WI, northern IL and IN, northwest OH, and central and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 14, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 September: First reports from MS and LA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS; and Tensas County, LA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. **

*** Epidemic Update - 12 September: First report from NH; New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, NH; and Monroe County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence makes landfall; highly active weather lower mid-Atlantic / upper Southeast. Hurricane Florence made landfall this morning on the southern NC coast. She is forecast to drift slowly southwest and west over the next several days. Very heavy rain will fall from southern VA through the Carolinas, with showers expected in the surrounding areas. High pressure keeps the northern areas mostly dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the mid-Atlantic region. The most important transport events are governed by the circulation around Hurricane Florence. A few others may lead to short-range epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 14

HIGH Risk in southern MD, VA except the southwest, NC except the southwest, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southern NJ, DE, northern and central MD, far northern VA, the southeast 1/2 of WV, southwest VA, southwest NC,  and western SC. Low Risk for central PA, southeast KY, northeast TN, northeast GA, and near the LA source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 15

HIGH Risk in all but northern VA, southeast WV, northesat TN, NC, SC, and far eastern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in MD, northern VA, WV except the southeast, eastern KY, eastern TN, and most of northern and eastern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits near the LA source, western NY, northwest PA, and nearby southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 12, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 September: First report from NH; New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, NH; and Monroe County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New reports from NY, OH, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Niagara County, NY; Champaign and Seneca County, OH; and Waushara County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence approaches the NC coast. The weather will become very wet on Thursday in the mid-Atlantic as Florence nears the coast. A variety of weather is expected elsewhere during midweek; showers will occur near a decaying front from the Northeast southwestward all the way to the Gulf Coast. There is a chance of showers elsewhere mixed in with dry weather. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely many areas. Transport events move various directions with those in the middle East Coast increasingly driven by the circulation around Hurricane Florence. Conditions are mixed to favorable for the majority of events. .

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 12

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest to northeast GA, western NC and SC, far northeast TN, WV, southwest and western VA, northern MD, northern DE, central to southeast PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern DE, central and southern MD, central VA and NC, north-central and eastern SC, southeast KY, eastern TN, northwest GA, east-central and southwest AL, southeast MS and LA. Low Risk for southeast GA, southern SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern OH, northwest PA, and south-central and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 13

HIGH Risk in west-central NY, central PA, MD, the eastern 1/2 of VA, east-central / eastern / far southwest NC, northeast NC, northeast and southern TN, northern GA, all but southeast AL, and southeast MS. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, central GA, western and central SC, western NC except the southwest, the western 1/2 of VA, far eastern KY, WV, southwest and far eastern PA, DE, NJ, and Long Island. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern MI, OH, northwest PA, western and southeast NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, east-central KY, and north-central TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 9, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New reports from NY, OH, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Niagara County, NY; Champaign and Seneca County, OH; and Waushara County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Active weather. A warm front over the mid-Atlantic connects to the remnants of TC Gordon in the Ohio Valley. A cold front extends to the southwest. Showers and rain will fall from southeast Canada to the Gulf Coast as the system treks to the north and east. Some drying wil occur Tuesday. The cold front stalls on Thursday. Highs in the 60s to 80s warming tot he 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely all regions. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be favorable during a large majority of the transport events early this week. Events move in a variety of directions and can impact any growing areas east of the MS river on more than one occasion.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 9

HIGH Risk in southern and eastern IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, western and southern NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, the Virginias, KY, TN, the NC mountains, and far northern AL . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest IN, southwest and east-central MI, central and eastern NC, SC, GA, eastern AL, and far northern FL. Low Risk for southwet AL, the FL panhandle, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 10

HIGH Risk in southesat MI, southern ON, all but southwest OH, NY, PA, NJ, southern New England, southern VT and NH, DE, MD, WV, all but southeast VA, northeast TN, western NC, central and southern AL, and west-central nd southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central MI, eastern IN, southwest OH, eastern KY, central TN, southeast VA, central and eastern NC, SC, northern AL, and northern and eastern GA . Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central MI, and central IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 11

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL and GA, southern Appalachian Mountains, far eastn PA, northern NJ, Long Island, eastern NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast PA, southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, south-central and southeast VA, central and eastern NC, all but northwest SC, northern and eastern GA, northern AL, and south-central TN. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern VA, central and eastern WV, central and western MD, western and central PA, NY except the southeast, and northern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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