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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 7, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley; dry far North; chance of showers elsewhere. Declining TD Gordon is moving quite slowly through the mid-MS Valley. He joins with a wavy surface front running west-east from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic states. Precipitation will focus in these areas. High pressure pressing southward from Canada will keep southern Canada and the far northern U.S. dry. To the south ... warm, muggy weather dominates with showers possible in various areas, mainly near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. Transport events exhibit a variety of directions late this week, the more notable ones moving westward from some of the northern sources. Conditions are most favorable near the front lying across the eastern U.S. midsection. The clouds and rain associated with the circulation around TD Gordon will have only a partial effect on a few transport events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 7

HIGH Risk in southeast IL, central and southern IN, central and southern OH, KY and WV except the far south, central and southern PA, MD, northern VA, DE, and central and southern NJ . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast IL, northern IN, northern OH, northern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, southern VA, far southern WV, far southern KY, western TN, the mountain and coastal counties of NC, coastal SC, southern GA, far southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for south-central AL and GA, east-central SC and NC, and northeast TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 8

HIGH Risk in southeast IL, central and southern IN, southern OH, KY, VA, WV, MD, southern PA, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TN, NC, SC, far southern GA and AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central AL and GA, northeast IL, far northern IL, northern OH, southern MI, central and northern PA, and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, September 4, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Wet Gulf Coast and parts of the North; variable weather elsewhere. The big players in the mid-week weather are TS / HR Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico and a frontal system in the North. Tropical Storm Gordon is moving northwest through the eastern Gulf. Gordon should reach hurricane strength this afternoon and will make landfall on the central Gulf Coast tonight. The lower MS Va;lley will receive heavy rain over the next several days. To the north, a frontal system will impact the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast in succession as it moves east. Meanwhile, high pressure entrenched over most of east-central and eastern North America yields hot and muggy weather, with summertime isolated to scattered showers in various areas each day. Hot with highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s, cooling in the North Thursday into Friday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf Coast and parts of the North. A mixed bag of conditions surround the midweek transport events. The most favorable will be near Hurricane Gordon and near the front progressing across the northern areas. Conditions change day-to-day and locale to locale for most events, slightly favorable to mixed. Events move many directions.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, September 4

HIGH Risk in eastern LA, the southern 1/2 of MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in north-central MS, north-central AL, central and southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for northern LA, eastern AR, northern MS, northern AL, south-central TN, northern and eastern SC, NC, VA, eastern WV, southern MD, southern DE, eastern WI, central and southern MI, far northern IN, southern ON, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, September 5

HIGH Risk in southwest AL, central and southern MS, northern IL, southern WI, and west-central MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far eastern AR, northern MS, central and southeast AL, the FL panhandle, southwest and eastern GA, central and western SC, southwest NC, northern IN, and central and southern MI. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast MI, northern OH, southern ON, most of NY, PA except the southwest, northern NJ, central and southern IN, and southwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, September 6

HIGH Risk in southern MS, southwest AL, southeast MI, northern OH, western and central PA, southern ON, and the western 1/2 of NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, coastal SC, AL except the southwest, northern  MS, western TN and KY, southeast IL, southwest IN, eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, the eastern half of NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH . Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central MI, part of southern ON, eastern KY, southern WV, western and southwest VA, northeast TN, and western NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 2, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New reports from TN and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Lawrence County, TN; and Aiken County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled Gulf Coast and North; mostly dry with some showers elsewhere. High pressure at the surface and aloft governs the weather in eastern North America. Unsettled / wet weather will be found in a "horseshoe" that runs along the Gulf Coast, north through the central U.S., and then east into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The high pressure aloft generally suppresses shower activity in the Ohio and TN Valleys and the mid-Atlantic, though isolated to scattered showers will occur in some areas. Warm, with highs 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf Coast and part of the Great Lakes, possible elsewhere. Transport events move a variety of directions, driven by the clockwise circulation around surface high pressure centered along / just off the central Atlantic coast. Conditions will more favorable near the Gulf Coast and parts of the North. Elsewhere, anything from unfavorable to mixed conditions is possible during the events, with risks heavily dependent on daily cloud coverage and the chance of showers.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 2

HIGH Risk in southern SC, southern GA, the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern MS, southeast LA, and eastern WI . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central MS, central AL, central and northeast GA, northwest SC, western NC, eastern TN, southeast KY, southern WV, southwest VA, theDelMarVa peninsula, and southern NJ. Low Risk for NY, western MA, CT, Long Island, northern and central NJ, the northeast 1/2 of PA, east-central KY, central and eastern VA, central and eastern NC, and north-central and northeast SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 3

HIGH Risk in eastern WI, central MI, southern MS, far southeast LA, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central AL, central GA, southern SC, the NC mountains and nearby southwest VA, northern IN and OH, southern MI, southern ON, far northern PA, and western and central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in PA except the far north, NJ, northern WV, MD, DE, VA except the southwest, east-central and eastern KY, NC east of the mountains, and central and northern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 31, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New reports from TN and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Lawrence County, TN; and Aiken County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from KY, NY, OH, NC, ON. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Genessee County, NY; Wayne County, OH; Yadkin County, NC; and Chatham-Kent County, ON. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Variable weather. One front is dissipating over the mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley. Another is moving through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The better chances of rain will be  from the mid-Atlantic southwestward through the mid-South and ahead of the front in the north. Scattered showers are possible just about anywhere else though some locales will be dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely many different areas. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition during the late week transport events will vary quite a bit from region to region and from day to day. Events near the Gulf Coast and in portions of the mid-Atlantic states and Great Lakes have the most favorable conditions. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be encountered by many other transport events.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 31

HIGH Risk in southern MS, far southeast LA, southern 1/2 of AL, southwest GA, far eastern WV, MD, DE, far northern VA, NJ, and central and eastern PA . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern WI, the western UP of MI, central NY, KY except the west-central, TN except the east-central, southern WV, VA except the far north, NC, northwest SC, and the northern 1/2 of AL. Low Risk for SC except the northwest, northwest-central PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 1

HIGH Risk in the western FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern MS, northeast TN, the NC mountains, southwest / western / northern VA, eastern WV, MD, DE, southern NJ, southern PA, central and northern MI, eastern WI, and the central UP of MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest GA, central and northern AL, northeast MS, eastern GA, SC, NC outside the mountains, south-central and eastern VA, eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, western and northern PA, and central and northern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits in western TN and KY, IN, southern MI, southern ON, southern and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 24, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 August: New reports from IN, AL, WI, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN; Shelby and Elmore Counties, AL; Dane County, WI; Chester County, PA; and Chautauqua, Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Tioga Counties, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First report from CT; new reports from VA, PA, and WV. CDM has been confirmed in Hartford County, CT; Madison, Albemarle, and Montgomery Counties, VA; Blair County, PA; and Monroe and Monongalia Counties, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Showers Southeast and Great Lakes / Ohio Valley; dry otherwise. Thursday marked the beginning of a much drier period and this will continue for at least the next several days. Canadian high pressure is wedging itself into the eastern U.S. / Canadian maritimes. The prior front is pinned near the Gulf Coast. Another small system is moving toward the Great Lakes / Midwest / Ohio Valley. Those features will trigger some showers. Dry and cooler weather will be found elsewhere. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes. Transport events on Friday move near-source and northwest to north. Most of Saturday's events move northeast. The most favorable conditions will be found in and around the Great Lakes region.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 24

HIGH Risk in central WI, the western UP of MI, western IN, eastern IL, and western MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast IN, central MI, southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for northwest OH, eastern MI, and far southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 25

HIGH Risk in eastern IN and the eastern half of lower MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western MI, western IN, far eastern IL, northern OH, southern ON, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern SC, northern WV, western PA, NY, southern WI, and far northern IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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