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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 29, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 29 June: New report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Cook County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Chance of showers Southeast; dry mid-Atlantic. Another front has dropped into the upper Southeast, where it will linger into the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure at the surface and aloft dominate. Along and south of the front, scattered showers and storms fire each day. In the mid-Atlantic, north of the front, the environment is much less conducive and no rain is anticipated. Hot, with highs fully in the 90s and lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Transport events move largely near the sources. More clouds and showers will occur toward the lower Southeast and it is there where risks will be highest. Some disease development is possible farther northeast in the coastal areas. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 29

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern and eastern NC and southeast NC. Low risk for northeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 30

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA and the coastal plains of SC. Low Risk in southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, June 26, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Unsettled Tuesday; increased dryness Wednesday and Thursday. A front is draped from the Carolinas through TN / KY to a parent Low in the Midwest. High pressure lies to the north and south. The front pauses for a day before lifting north as a warm front Wednesday and Thursday. Expect scattered to numerous showers over most of the region on Tuesday. There will be more sunshine and fewer showers Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure aloft asserts itself. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in NC and VA, possible in many East Coast states. The overall mid-week weather picture is one of slightly favorable to mixed conditions for nearly all transport events. The most salient events are those out of NC on Tuesday, which track northwest (the sources lie north of the main front, influenced by quite different wind flows). Conditions are favorable during this time and survivable transport and effective deposition are quite probable for new regions. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, June 26

Transport events move mostly near-source; the NC events move northwest. HIGH Risk for NC except the far east and southwest, and for south-central and southwest VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and the panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Low risk for northwest VA, WV, far western MD, far southeast OH, and southwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, June 27

Transport events track near-source and north to northeast. The MD event may impact new areas. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, the eastern 1/2 of NC, central and eastern VA, and far southern MD. Low Risk in most of MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, June 28

Transport events move near-source and east. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, far eastern NC, central and eastern SC, southern GA, and northern and central FL. Low Risk in much of eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, June 24, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 June: First report from MD. New reports from SC, NC, and GA. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, MD; Bamburg County, SC; Edgecombe County, NC; and Decatur County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Cold front moves toward the Southeast. A front now in the mid-Atlantic gets pushed to the south by high pressure out of Canada, reaching the Southeast by Tuesday morning. Afternoon / evening showers will fire near the front and near weak surface troughs in the Southeast. Greatest amounts of rain will fall near the main front and in parts of FL. Many areas will be dry under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Hot with 90s / 70s most areas, 80s / 60s north of the cold front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL, possible elsewhere. Epidemic spread is more likely near the sources into early next week. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed in nearly all cases, the lone exception being Monday's transport event out of FL. Many transport events on Monday will trend west of the known sources and may impact new areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, June 24

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, the southern half of GA, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, June 25

HIGH Risk for west-central FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northeast SC, and south-central and southeast NC. Low Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southern GA, southern SC, and north-central and northeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 22, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 June: First report from MD. New reports from SC, NC, and GA. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, MD; Bamburg County, SC; Edgecombe County, NC; and Decatur County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Summertime hot with showers late this week. Slow-moving surface features are in place the next 2 days. A front wavers around in the mid-Atlantic, connected to a Low in the Ohio Valley, with a front southward from there into the western Southeast / mid-South. The front to the west crawls eastwards into Saturday. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures accompany scattered showers and storms south and east of the fronts. More clouds and a better chance of rain are found near the front in the mid-Atlantic. Highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the upper mid-Atlantic, possible elsewhere along the Atlantic Coast. Favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are expected for the transport events coming out of MD. Other events are characterized by slightly favorable to moderate conditions. Transport events move northeast in nearly all cases, save for MD event on Friday, which moves WNW.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 22

HIGH Risk for southern NJ, DE, and central and eastern MD. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast VA, east-centra and eastern NC, southern GA, far northern FL, and central FL. Low risk for the coastal plains of SC, southeast NC, northern VA, western MD, northern WV, and southwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 23

HIGH Risk for central and southern NJ, far southeast PA, northeast MD, and northern DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, eastern MD, southeast VA, eastern NC, southern and eastern SC, southeast GA, and central FL. Low Risk in southwest GA and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, June 19, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 June: First report from MD. New reports from SC, NC, and GA. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, MD; Bamburg County, SC; Edgecombe County, NC; and Decatur County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Hot with a chance of showers. High pressure lies over the region, centered to the east. A front sits across the Virginias and into the Ohio Valley; it wavers north and south, remaining essentially in place through midweek. There will be a good chance of showers near the front. Largely dry in the Southeast with some isolated to scattered showers each day. Hot with highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the MD source, possible elsewhere along the central and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Tranport events tend to track near the sources and to the east. Most events are surrounded by slightly favorable to mixed conditions.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, June 19

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, and southern GA, plus southeast MD, southern DE, and far eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, June 20

HIGH Risk for eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL and the eastern panhandle, and southern GA. Low Risk in southern and eastern SC, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, June 21

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, northeast SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk in central FL, southern SC, southeast VA, eastern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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