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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 2, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 October: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather with a chance of showers far South. High pressure anchored over southern Canada / eastern U.S. governs the weather, which is dry early this week under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Onshore flow in the lower Southeast and the western Gulf Coast and the presence of a dying stationary front will cause showers in those areas. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 40s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition dominate the situation. Only a few transport events in the lower Southeast and Gulf Coast regions produce any meaningful chance of epidemic spread. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 2

Moderate Risk in central FL, southwest MS, and northeast LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast FL, southeast GA, southern SC, central and western AL, MS except the southwest, and near the TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 3

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, and east-central and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in far northeast FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 29, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry most regions; unsettled parts of the northern and southern areas. Dry weather and cool temperatures will be the hallmarks over the next 3 days. A stalled front in the South will help trigger showers, mostly in the lower Southeast and TX. A secondary front swinging through the northern sections today and tonight will generate some rain, also. Much cooler with highs in the 60s and 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible Friday, unlikely Saturday and Sunday. Transport events tend to move near the sources in most cases. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will be found in many events on Friday, mainly in portions of the South and North. Any epidemic spread on Saturday and Sunday should be restricted to a few locations in the far South. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 29

Moderate Risk in deep south TX, the FL peninsula, southeast GA, southern SC, northeast OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL, southwest GA, the NC mountains, northeast SC, eastern NC, north-central PA, northwest OH, far southern ON, central and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 30

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, MA, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern GA and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 1

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 27, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Continued dry; chance of showers a few areas. One long cold front trudges eastward from its current position in the Great Lakes southwestward to TX. Little rain is expected with the front. The exceptions include rainy weather in TX / OK, some showers in FL, and a chance of rain in portions of the North. Mild coastal impacts from HR Maria diminish further. Large temperature contrasts are coming, with highs/lows in the 80s-90s / 60s-70s ahead of the front, 60s-80s / 40s to 60s behind.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The favorable conditions in the Plains states should have little impact on the early-week transport events. Most events are benign. Some epidemic spread is possible in parts of the South, and along the mid-Atlantic coast (mainly on Tuesday). 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 27

Moderate Risk in southern FL and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern MI, southern ON, OH, northwest PA, western NY, far eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern MA, RI, eastern CT, and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 28

Moderate Risk for deep south TX and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 25, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather overall; rain in the Plains; showers from Maria in the East? The weather pattern is stagnant with high pressure ruling eastern North America and fronts in the Plains / upper Midwest / southern Canada. Suuny to partly cloudy skies and dry weather are dominant. Hurricane Maria, moving north off the Southeast coast, will introduce some clouds, showers, and wind to the mid-Atlantic coast. The front in the Plains has plenty of rain associated with it as it inches eastward.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely most regions. The favorable conditions in the Plains states should have little impact on the early-week transport events. Most events are benign. Some epidemic spread is possible in parts of the South, and along the mid-Atlantic coast (mainly on Tuesday). 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 25

Moderate Risk in southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in far eastern NC, west-central FL, the FL panhandle, AL, eastern and southwest MS, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 26

Moderate Risk for deep south TX, southern FL, far eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest MS, northeast LA, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 22, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 20 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Stafford County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Generally dry with showers possible South. The weather situation will be much like it was over the past few days. High pressure remains firmly entrenched over eastern North America, with fronts staying to the west and north. Pesky post-tropical cyclone Jose slowly exits the New England coast. Dry weather is dominant. Scattered showers will occur in parts of the South each day. Major Hurricane Maria, now north of Hispaniola, is turning to the north and should remain well offshore the southern Atlantic coast. Expect few, if any, weather impacts from Maria until next week. Warm to hot with highs well into the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely most regions, possible in the South. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition of airborne spores during the nearly all the transport events coming out of the northern and central regions. A daily hodge-podge of conditions is expected for the events emanating from the southern sources, only a few of which generate High risk. Transport events tend to move near the sources in most cases. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 22

Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, and in the western panhandle of FL, AL, southwest MS, eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI. Low Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, SC, the NC mountains, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL. Moderate Risk for southern FL and southeast GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the FL panhandle, AL, southern MS, and deep south and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 24

Moderate Risk for southern FL, the western FL panhandle, southwest AL, and southern MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and east-central TX, southeast AL, southwest GA, central and northern FL, and the eastern panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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