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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 22, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 July: New reports from NC and VA. CDM had been confirmed in Henderson County, NC and Emporia County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New report from NC. CDM had been confirmed in Chatham County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

More very unsettled weather. Wet weather is expected along the entirety of eastern North America from today into at least the middle of the upcoming week. The progression of the upper-level features has slowed to a crawl and so the surface fronts have follow suit. Rain, showers, and storms will be most frequent during the PM hours but can occur at any time. Skies may start out sunny in some locations but will trend heavily toward cloudy as time passes each day. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the East Coast states. Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread and will remain so for a number of days. For Sunday and Monday, most transport events track northwest and north due to the orientation of the surface weather features.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 22

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, northern FL, southern AL and GA, western NC, southwest VA, far southern WV, eastern MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, and southern NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central AL, central GA, and central and eastern sections of NC and VA. Low Risk for central and eastern SC, northern VA, eastern WV, the western half of MD, western PA, northwest NY, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 23

HIGH Risk for east-central AL, central and eastern GA, the Carolinas, northeast TN, eastern WV, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and western and south-central NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern KY, western WV, eastern OH, western PA, north-central NY, and eastern sections of southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 20, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New report from NC. CDM had been confirmed in Chatham County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: First report from VA. New Report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie County, VA; and Hyde County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Active weather. Two major systems will affect the weather. One is a low pressure area that is forming on the stalled front in the South. It will ride up the Atlantic coast. The other is a frontal system that is swinging through the Midwest toward the East. Rain and showers, initially in the Southeast and North on Friday, will occur over all the east coast states on Saturday. Highs mostly 80s with some 90s South on Saturday. Lows in the 60s and 70s. Wet weather will likely impact much of the East later this weekend into next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Transport events Friday and Saturday move a variety of ways as the two major weather systems affect them. Friday's tend to move near-source and west-to-northwest. Saturday's track east / northeast from the southern sources, west / northwest from the mid-Atlantic sources. The most favorable overall conditions for epidemic spread will be found in the Southeast, due to the more favorable current and forecast weather and the more favorable antecedent environment (more dry weather recently in the mid-Atlantic states). Favorable to very favorable weather for epidemic spread is expected all along the Eastern Seaboard from this weekend into at least the middle of next week.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 20

HIGH Risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, and southeast SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, central SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk for central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 21

HIGH Risk for southeast AL, the FL panhandle, northern FL, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, and western and southern NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in central FL, west-central VA, eastern WV, western PA, eastern OH, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 17, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: First report from VA. New Report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie County, VA; and Hyde County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: New reports from AL and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Escambia and Baldwin Counties, AL; and in Warren County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Cold front impacts the eastern U.S.. Active weather with abundant clouds and showers will occur Tuesday as the front moves over the Appalachians and into our regions of interest. The front clears the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday; progressive high pressure traverses the northern U.S. in its wake then brings 2-3 days of dry weather. Showers continue in the South after the front stalls. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and PA(Tuesday). Conditions during Tuesday's transport events are mixed or favorable for epidemic spread. Thereafter, unfavorable weather makes increasing inroads in the mid-Atlantic region and the events of interest occur in the Southeast. A variety of conditions surround those transport events on Wednesday and Thursday. Airborne spores track east to northeast ahead of the front, south to sometimes west behind the front (nearly all these events have minimal impact).   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 17

HIGH Risk for south-central and southeast PA, southeast AL, central and southern GA, southern SC, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, southeast MD, DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Low Risk for northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 18

HIGH Risk for the southern half of AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, and far southern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south-central and northeast SC, and far southeast NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in north-central SC, and most of southeast and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, July 19

HIGH Risk for southern AL, FL panhandle, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central AL, west-central and south-central GA, and far southern SC. Low Risk in east-central GA, and central and northern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 15, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: New reports from AL and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Escambia and Baldwin Counties, AL; and in Warren County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 July: First report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in Mifflin County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Standard summertime weather with showers. Loose high pressure sits over the eastern U.S., gradually shifting offshore. A front now in the Midwest approaches over the next two days. It will generate scattered PM showers in the Southeast, the northern mid-Atlantic, and along and west of the mountains. Large sections of the lower mid-Atlantic / SC will be dry on Sunday and see a chance of rain on Monday. Look for near-normal temperatures with highs in the 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and PA/NJ, possible elsewhere along the East Coast states. Conditions during most transport events are mixed or favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition. Transport events track near the sources and east / northeast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 15

HIGH Risk for southern AL, western and southern GA, the FL panhandle, northern FL, most of central and eastern PA, and northern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA, southeast PA, southern NJ, and DE. Low Risk for eastern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 16

HIGH Risk for GA and southern and eastern AL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast GA, all but northeast SC, central PA, and south-central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England (CT, RI, MA), and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 13, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 July: First report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in Mifflin County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: New reports from DE (First report) and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Kent County, DE; and in Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Showers Southeast, dry mid-Atlantic. High pressure lies over the mid-Atlantic / Northeast and a stationary front sits over the upper Southeast. The latter feature keeps a chance of showers over the Southeast as it wavers around AL / GA / SC. The former keeps the mid-Atlantic largely dry, though the upper sections may get a shower on Saturday as a front approaches. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Transport events tend to move near the sources the next 2 days. Sunny to partly cloudy skies, coupled with varying chances / amounts of rain, yield a range of conditions but no High Risk scenarios are forecast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 13

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far eastern GA, and SC except the north-central. Low Risk for northern FL and the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, north-central SC, and south-central and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 14

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL, central and southern GA, far southern SC, and far northern FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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