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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 8, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 SeptemberNew report from OHCDM has been confirmed in Warren County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 SeptemberNew reports from OH, VA, and WVCDM has been confirmed in Pike, Tuscarawas, and Guernsey Counties, OH; Brunswick County, VA; and Mason County, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Powerful Hurricane Irma set to impact the Southeast; mostly dry otherwise. Major Hurricane Irma is moving between Cuba and the Bahamas. Rain will arrive in southern FL later today. Very heavy rain will move up the peninsula Saturday and into the mainland Southeast on Sunday. A broad, strong high pressure dominates the rest of eastern North America. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry weather, save for a weak system that generates some showers in the Northeast on Friday. Cool, with highs in the 60s to 80s and lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL, much less likely elsewhere. Showers far ahead of HR Irma, and then the hurricane itself, produce very favorable conditions for epidemic spread over the FL peninsula Friday through Sunday. Mixed conditions in the northern regions on Friday generate mid-level risks. Unfavorable conditions are expected for nearly all other transport events. The epidemic spread scenarios will change drastically early next week as Hurricane Irma moves into the southeastern U.S..

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in northern WV, nearby OH, western and northern PA, NY except the north, northern MA, southern VT and NH, and near the QC source. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, southeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA, and near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in southeast GA and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern panhandle of FL, southwest and central GA, and central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 6, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 SeptemberNew reports from OH, VA, and WVCDM has been confirmed in Pike, Tuscarawas, and Guernsey Counties, OH; Brunswick County, VA; and Mason County, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 SeptemberNew report from PACDM has been confirmed in Berks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active Wednesday; drying Thursday. The very long early-week cold front ... now stretching along the Eastern Seaboard and across the northern Gulf ... moves offshore on Thursday. Rain and showers occur Wednesday on the East Coast. High pressure in the central U.S. builds eastward on Thursday behind the front. Showers are expected in the Great Lakes / Northeast through the period due to the initial system Wednesday and then a weak secondary system on Thursday. Highs from the 60s to 90s, lows from the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely during Wednesday's transport events. Said transport events are tracking near-source and to the east and northeast. Conditions are favorable along and ahead of the extended cold front and in the wrap-around section of the system that's over the Great Lakes. Much less chance of epidemic spread is anticipated for Thursday's events. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions occur in the northern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, and in southeast GA, the Carolinas, VA, MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, southeast NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, near the QC source, central and southern MI, northern IN, northern and central OH, and far southern ON. Moderate Risk in southern OH, western and central NY, southwest GA, and the eastern FL panhandle. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern OH, western PA, northern WV, central GA, southern AL, the western FL panhandle, and near the southern TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 7

Moderate Risk in central and southern MI, northern and eastern OH, southern ON, southern QC, northern WV, western and northern PA, NY except the southeast, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern IN, southwest OH, southeast PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, the New England states except central and eastern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 4, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 SeptemberNew report from PACDM has been confirmed in Berks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry Monday; more unsettled Tuesday. Yet another summer cold front will surge into eastern North America early this week. Scattered showers move into the Great Lakes / Midwest today and progress into the East and South on Tuesday. Highs from the70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in many areas on Tuesday. Transport events trend toward the northeast on Monday and to the east and northeast on Tuesday. After a largely benign day on Monday, risks to cucurbits blossom on Tuesday as many events encounter more favorable conditions along and ahead of the cold front. Cucurbits most affected lie in a swath from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MI and the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in southeast GA and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the eastern FL panhandle, northern IN, southern MI, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, KY except the west-central, WV, southern OH, PA except the northwest, northern NJ, western MD, the southeast 1/2 of NY, western CT, western MA, southern VT and NH, southern ME, and near the QC source. Moderate Risk in deep south TX, northern FL, central MS, northern AL, GA except the southwest, SC, central and western NC, eastern TN, northern / western / southwest VA, eastern MI, southern ON, northwest PA, and western and northern NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest PA, southern AL, eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, Long Island, eastern CT, RI, eastern MA, and eastern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 1, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 AugustNew reports from KY, MA, and INCDM has been confirmed in Caldwell County, KY; Middlesex County, MA; and Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather Friday and Saturday; improving weather on Sunday. Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey will move through TN and KY today and then move to the northeast. The eastern side of the non-merged midweek fronts accompanies Harvey to the north, while the western side swings southeast as a cold front. Widespread clouds, rain, and showers are forecast for Friday and Saturday. Much drier weather occurs by Sunday. There will be rain in the Northeast / southern Canada, some showers far South, and dry weather elsewhere. Wide range of temperatures ... highs from the 60s to 90s, lows from the 40s to 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Friday and Saturday most areas, and in the Northeast on Sunday. The widespread favorable weather produces many opportunities for epidemic spread Friday and Saturday, primarily in and around the source regions. Drying and clearing conditions on Sunday will decrease the threat. Favorable conditions for that day's events will be confined to the upper mid-Atlantic / Northeast / southeast Canada.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL except the western panhandle, southern and eastern GA, SC and NC, VA, western MD, WV, southwest PA, southern OH, southern IN, KY, northeast TN, and western TN. Moderate Risk in northern AL, far northeast GA, central TN, northern OH, PA except the southwest and northeast, southern NJ, DE, and eastern MD. Low Risk for cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, southern AL, and western GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast KY, OH, northern and central WV, PA except the far north, NJ, MD, DE, northern and eastern VA, eastern NC and SC, southern GA, FL except the western panhandle. Moderate Risk in south-central GA, central SC, central and northwest NC, western and southwest VA, southern WV, northeast TN, central KY, western NY, far northern PA, and Long Island. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern NY, southern VT and NH, MA, CT, RI, southwest NC, western SC, southern AL, the western panhandle of FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern QC, the southern 1/2 of NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, Long Island, central and eastern PA, NJ, northern DE, and northern MD. Moderate Risk in western PA, northern WV, the FL peninsula, and southeast GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, southeast MD, and far eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 30, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 AugustNew reports from KY, MA, and INCDM has been confirmed in Caldwell County, KY; Middlesex County, MA; and Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack and Virginia Beach Counties, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather, mainly Southeast and east-central U.S.. Rain and showers will be prevalent through midweek and beyond from the central Gulf Coast states into the lower Ohio Valley and Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic regions. This is due to the northeastward-moving remnants of TS Harvey joining forces with a northward-moving warm front. A cold front pushing south form southern Canada will trigger showers in the northern  areas before interactivng with the other systems late Thursday into Friday. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread again likely in many regions. Transport events are moving primarily near-source with additional dispersion in a variety of directions, influenced by the changing positions of TS Harvey and the frontal boundaries. Conditions will be favorable in the South on Wednesday. Favorable conditions will continue in the southern areas for Thursday's events, with mixed to favorable conditions present also in the northern areas as that cold front drops toward the known sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in far eastern TX, northern LA, southern AR, southwest TN, MS, AL, FL panhandle, western and southern GA, northwest SC, and southwest NC. Moderate Risk in western KY, northwest NC, southwest VA, and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL, central and eastern SC, south-central and southeast NC, eastern OH, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in MS, AL, the FL panhandle, most of GA, northern and central SC, NC, southern VA, southern WV, KY, southern IN, far northern PA, NY except the southeast and Long Island. Moderate Risk in southeast GA, southern SC, eastern OH, PA, northern WV and MD, northern DE, northern and western NH, southeast NY, southern New England, northern VT, and near the QC source. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, TN, northern IN, northwest OH, northern and eastern VA, southern MD, southern DE, eastern NJ, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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