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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, June 26, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Nash and Johnston Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Unsettled Tuesday; increased dryness Wednesday and Thursday. A front is draped from the Carolinas through TN / KY to a parent Low in the Midwest. High pressure lies to the north and south. The front pauses for a day before lifting north as a warm front Wednesday and Thursday. Expect scattered to numerous showers over most of the region on Tuesday. There will be more sunshine and fewer showers Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure aloft asserts itself. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in NC and VA, possible in many East Coast states. The overall mid-week weather picture is one of slightly favorable to mixed conditions for nearly all transport events. The most salient events are those out of NC on Tuesday, which track northwest (the sources lie north of the main front, influenced by quite different wind flows). Conditions are favorable during this time and survivable transport and effective deposition are quite probable for new regions. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, June 26

Transport events move mostly near-source; the NC events move northwest. HIGH Risk for NC except the far east and southwest, and for south-central and southwest VA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and the panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Low risk for northwest VA, WV, far western MD, far southeast OH, and southwest PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, June 27

Transport events track near-source and north to northeast. The MD event may impact new areas. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, the eastern 1/2 of NC, central and eastern VA, and far southern MD. Low Risk in most of MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, June 28

Transport events move near-source and east. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, far eastern NC, central and eastern SC, southern GA, and northern and central FL. Low Risk in much of eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018