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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 21, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Changeable weather. A strong Low over southern ON anchors a cold front that extends into the southern Plains. Active weather follows the front as the northern end surges east, the southern end holds steady, and the middle section eventually repositions over the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley. Some areas will be wet both days (southern Ohio Valley), some dry (interior Southeast), but most will have one day of showers and another day of fair weather. Highs from the 70s to 90s dropping to the 60s to 80s. Lows in the 60s and 70s, dropping to the 40s to 70s.



Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower/mid MS and Ohio Valleys. Transport events move to the east and northeast on Friday; they exhibit a variety of behaviors on Saturday. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread will be found in an arc leading from the central Gulf Coast north and east toward the central Appalachians.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 21

HIGH Risk for central and eastern AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TN, KY, southern IN, southern OH, WV, southwest VA, western MD, and southwest PA. Low Risk for northeast LA, northeast MS / northwest AL, northern SC, the western 1/2 of NC, western and northern VA, central MD, lower MI, northern IN and OH, southern ON, PA except the southwest, central and northern NJ, NY, Long Island, southern New England, VT, and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 22

HIGH Risk for northeast LA, eastern AR, northwest MS, western and north-central TN, far southeast MO, far southern IL/IN/OH, KY, extreme southwest VA, central and western WV. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, MS except the northwest, western and central AL, the western FL panhandle, south-central and eastern TN, western and central NC, and western and central VA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast NC, northern and eastern VA, DE, MD, northern WV, southern PA, and south-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018