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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 10, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

A very wet period. High pressure off the East Coast continues to pump moist air into the eastern U.S., and Hurricane Michael will make landfall today on the FL panhandle and trek northeastward aross GA and the Carolinas. This happens ahead of a strong auturm cold front moving toward the East Coast. Rain encompasses the whole of eastern North America from the Gulf to southern Canada, with the heaviest along the track of Michael. Highs in the 70s and 80s / lows 60s and 70s, droppping to the 50s-70s / 40s-60s behind the front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along and near Michael's path. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be particularly favorable in the Southeast and nearby sections of the eastern Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. A marked change comes behind the midweek weather situation.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 10

HIGH Risk for west-central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, AL, GA, SC, NC, southern VA, central and eastern TN, and southeastern KY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast MS / nearby AL, western TN, western and northern KY, southern IN and OH, WV, central and northern VA, MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk for lower MI, central and northern IN and OH, southern ON, PA, NY, central and northern NJ, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 11

HIGH Risk for northeast SC, central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, and southern MD. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, GA, SC except the northeast, western NC, northeast TN, eastern KY, southern WV, southwest and western VA, central MD, DE, central and southern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits in western MD, northern WV, eastern OH, PA, northern NJ, NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and the southern 1/2 of ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018