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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, October 14, 2018


*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***


Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled; dry with an increasing chance of showers Southeast. A strong cold front in the central U.S. will overtake an existing front in the South on its way to sweeping through eastern North America. Shower activity is focused initially in the Ohio Valley and parts of the North. The Southeast is generally dry; the chance of showers here increases with time as the front moves into the TN Valley  / lower mid-Atlantic. Highs range from the 50s to 80s, lows from the 30s to 70s. Frosts and/or freezes have occurred across parts of the northern sections and more are on the way during midweek.



Overview: Epidemic spread possible most areas. Transport events tend to track east to northeast in most cases and there will be a few behind the cold front that move near-source or south to southwest. Autumn conditions prevail, with diminished spore load, a variety of sky cover, and a mish-mash of scattered showers and light to moderate rainfall in some regions.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, October 14

Moderate Risk for west-central FL, central NC, central and eastern VA, southern MD, southern DE, western and northern MS, central and western TN, and western and central KY. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NC, eastern TN, far eastern KY, WV, western VA, northern MD and DE, NJ, PA, southern NY, southern ON, OH, IN, central and southern MI, far eastern IL, and southern WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 15

Moderate Risk in northern LA, southwest and eastern MS, AL, northwest GA, western and central TN, and KY. Low Risk to cucurbits in the southern Appalachian Mountains, southern IN, OH, central and western WV, central and eastern VA, NJ, MD, DE, southern ON, PA, NY, Long Island, and New England except northern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, October 16

Moderate Risk for central LA, MS, south-central TN, AL except the southeast, northern GA, northern SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, and west-central FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, central and southern SC, eastern TN, western NC, southwest and central VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018